marginally subversive

Digital M&A Trends for 2008 from AdAge: Are Ad Companies Listening?

Advertising Age comes up with a view on Digital M&A Trends for 2008 in 2008 and I wonder how many of the ad companies which AdAge caters to as its primary audiences are going to heed. 

Amongst the trends that they are seeing for the coming year concerns something that I have been trying to champion:  analytics.

In one of its predictions, AdAge says that "Analytics will be hot - and expensive".  It further says that "as more marketers laser in on return on investments, expect the value of firms such as Web Trends, CoreMetrics, and Omniture... to rise".

Which to me is interesting.

Is 2008 the year when clients are actually going to wake up to the reality and the importance of analytics in their marketing campaigns?

I do hope so.

AdAge is also saying that "tech companies, ad agencies, and ad networks are all coming together".  I think it is inevitable as I have mentioned in my earlier blog entries (and in a presentation I made to my former agency's leadership team).  I think that 2008 will indeed be that year - BUT I don't think that it will be something that ad agencies will initiate:  they are well too protective of their "creative departments" and "strategic planning" departments and disciplines.  I think that it will be tech companies who will lead this. 

The possible acquirers?  Microsoft, Google, Yahoo (if they finally get their act together.)  Their targets?  IPG, Havas, and a slew of other smaller ad companies with respectable global networks (or at least, significant presence in Asia).

What else is there in 2008?  Size will still matter - WPP is thought by AdAge to continue its dominance in terms of heft, market cap, and revenues.  It is also potentially going to be gobbling up more companies in the upcoming year.  Will other holding companies following suit?  I think Publicis will - and Omnicom.

What's missing in the predictions of AdAge though is the emergence of Southeast Asia and India.  I think that the attention that has been given China (which will continue well into 2008 because of the Olympics) is too much. I believe that Southeast Asia - with its growing economies, such as Vietnam's and Malaysia's, and stable business environment (as in Singapore) - will figure prominently in 2008.  The markets in Southeast Asia and that of India have been growing steadily - and are being overshadowed by the continued spotlight on China.

Ready, Set, Go for 2008: BusinessWeek's Innovation Predictions for 2008

BusinessWeek came up with their innovation predictions for 2008 here. 

Their first prediction is "Innovation Consolidation", which will see the big consultancy firms acquiring companies that are known to be in the "innovation business" (such as Ideo and Jump) to "to bolster [their] innovation practice".  Is it likely?  I think so.  Considering that McKinsey, BCG, and Bain are all moving into areas that are traditionally beyond their expertise (e.g., marketing communications and marketing ROI), it is very probable that they would also look at developing expertise in these areas.

Related to this is the trend that sees the transformation of B-schools into D-schools, as well as the real emergence of the "experience-focused" customer. 

"Identity" replaces "experience" as the next big concept in design and media thinking. People create their own identities interacting with products and services. The notion of a consumer experience is a more passive way of thinking. It's so 20th century. Identity gets the buzz in '08.

One prediction that I thought was very interesting was the idea of "unfriend me". 

Who you're friends with becomes more important than how many friends you have. Exclusivity and privacy replace open community in social media. People move to gated networks from Facebook and MySpace (NWS), fleeing the commercialization of their personal information and relationships.

... which personally is true for me.  I have started "faceslamming" (to use a term that I got from reading Wired's December issue) and "unfriending" people.  I think we're far too connected these days - and such is the power of technology now that I can be found by classmates from high school and from university.  I don't really want all my friends to know what I have been up to, really.  I think this is going to be our alternative to privacy - or perhaps a new definition of what privacy online is going to be: a selective announcement of who we are, what we have been doing, and what we are planning to do.

BusinessWeek also thinks that Kindle of Amazon is going to catch fire.  As an avid book-reader, I am not sure about this.  As far as I am concerned, I still like the idea of having books in my library - although the thought of having too many books does cross my mind.  (I am a nomad.)

For the most part, I would say it's going to be an exciting 2008 for all tech companies and marketing companies (which pretty much is every company).

One thing's for sure:  it's not business as usual next year.

Randomness, Causation, and Analytics: Confusion...

This is from one of my favorite websites, Data Mining and Predictive Analytics: Random things...  The writer writes about randomness - and two of the books that I have read, Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan".  Here's a snippet:

I personally don't agree philosophically with the role of randomness. (I would prefer to say that many outcomes are unexplained then say randomness is the "reason" or "cause"--randomness does nothing itself, it is our way of saying "I don't know why" or "it is too hard to figure out why").

The writer also suggests some ways around it:

The solution? One great help in overcoming these problems is through sampling--the train/test/validate subset method, or by resampling methods (like bootstrapping). But having the mindset of skepticism about models helps tremendously in digging to ensure the models truly are predictive and not just a random matching of the patterns of interest.

To which I agree.

There must be some explanation for things that are happening around us.  There are "black swans" that are very unlikely to happen, but when they happen, result to catastrophic results.  But these, too, could be managed if one were to expand his/her horizons and be truly duly-diligent (and well, border on paranoia).

However, there is something that is confusing me a bit:  Is it really possible for us to predict with absolute certainty that we can predict the future?  Is it really possible for us to measure every single thing - and thereby explain every single thing that we encounter in the "real world"?

A part of me wants to say "yes".  Yet still, a part of me wants to say "no".

There are a lot of techniques out there that can minimize projections and come up with models that could even model these errors and the likelihood of these errors.  But are we ever really going to be certain?  Are we ever going to be absolutely certain?

My Ten Most Favorite Digital Things...: Part 2

This is part two of my ten most favorite digital things.  In the first part, I listed down in no particular order five digital things that I really loved.  I had the Yahoo finance pages with the advanced charting techniques, the Windows Live Services, my MacBookPro and OSX Leopard, my Nokia E90 phone, and the New Outlook and OneNote 2007 - all of which I really loved and enjoyed using.

Now, I am off to name the second set of the digital things that I really love - and I start off with...

Number 6:   C++. I know, I know.  It's not really something that I am good at - and it's not even something that I can see me using in the next couple of years.  But I am hinging on the possibility that with the more information coming my way - in the form of usage patterns, raw data on how people are using information on the net and how they are interacting with different sites - I think C++ will come in handy.  I have finished the first five chapters of my book - and am now into learning more about classes and objects.

Now some will probably say that C++ is too old - and that there are far too many other, more important and more up-to-date programming languages.  But for some reason, I have some affinity with C++.  It's probably because it's easy to understand - and from what I gathered, Office was built on C++.  (I could be wrong - don't shoot me!)

So I think that C++ will remain to be one of my favorite things - even if its applicability remains to be seen.  At least, I will have learned something.

7.  XLSTAT and XLMINER

I have personal subscriptions to XLSTAT and XLMINER - and when embedded into the new Excel 2007, XLSTAT becomes a real power-house.  I have not tried XLMINER on Excel 2007 - but the ability of Excel 2007 to manage so many rows and columns makes it easier for me to analyze different sets of data.  Back then, with Excel 2003 which I think accommodates only about 255 columns, I had to break down all my files into different sheets.

These days, I work and run my XLSTAT with ease on big files.

XLMINER, which still runs on my Office 2003 at my old personal PC, is still a gem.  Its neural networking capabilities, logistic regression, and classification routines are simply good and easy to navigate.  It's one helluva of tool that every data miner should have in their PC.  And I would gladly recommend it to someone interested in the field of datamining. 

My only gripe with XLMINER?  It can't manage much of the qualitative variables - or at least, I have not unlocked how to use qualitative variables just yet.  But all in all:  thumbs-up to both software programs.

8.  Apple Airport

I bought it, unboxed it, fired up the Mac, and set it up - all within 15 minutes.  Me the klutz when it comes to wires and setting up things managed to get it running.  And yes, it's now linking two personal laptops and two mobile phones in my apartment.

9.  Live.Com

Friends have been encouraging me to use Google Reader - but for some reason, I find it too ... blah.  Perhaps, it's just my personality.  I need some colors, some photos, some life in my news reader.  And Live.Com gives me that.

It allows me to customize my site (yes, I know - iGoogle does the same thing - but still... it's... bland!)  I like Live.Com:  it's now the default home-page on my laptop both at home and at work.  It summarizes the days news for me in various tabs - and the good thing about it:  I can preview the contents of the different subscriptions I have (and I have lots!).  If indeed the abstracts of the things I read intrigue me, then I would go off and read them.

10.  Lifehack.Org

OK.  I am one who does not really want to be told.  But seriously, LifeHack.Org gives me so many ideas on so many things.  Some of the articles I really like - like the latest entry on what to do if you're not really celebrating Christmas.  Others are way-off my field, I guess.  But that's the beauty of LifeHack.Org - it touches on things that are important to you directly, on things that may not necessarily be important to you now but could possibly be in the future.  My Del.Icio.Us account is full of LifeHack.Org tags.

I don't think any other website has been as cool LifeHack.Org.

Additional Stuff that I really liked...

I know the title says 10, but I need to mention two other services that I really liked:  LinkedIn.Com and PickTheBrain.Com.  You are probably very familiar with LinkedIn.Com - and if you are not, better go to LinkedIn.Com now and create your own profile.  I think of the different networking sites that I have joined, LinkedIn.Com perhaps was the most profitable in terms of generating "returns" on my efforts.  I have had several  requests for interviews and consulting projects through LinkedIn - all of which I had to turn down due to some reason or another. 

PickTheBrain.Com is rather a different breed.  It's more of the personal-development site, minus the preaching.  I am too hard-headed to be preached to - and I guess too cynical to even consider the "field" or the "spirituality that surrounds us all".  But PickTheBrain.Com is quite interesting as it focuses on achieving balance.  Their latest entry as of this writing talks about Self-Actualization and exercising, which I thought made sense.

I am sure there will be more useful stuff coming around and bubbling up in the near future.

My needs?  They're very simple, really.  Anything that would get me going and make me more efficient in managing my life and achieving that balance between work and personal life - that's good with me.  (Oh, Facebook is cool - but for now, I guess I don't really see the value in it for me save for wasting some time in the office when there's a lull in between projects - or mass-broadcasting everybody to leave me alone as I am trying to beat a deadline.)

That's it for now!

Microsoft quietly combines TV efforts | Beyond Binary - A blog by Ina Fried - CNET News.com

Some interesting news about  Microsoft from CNET News.com.

Microsoft has quietly folded its Internet Protocol television, Media Center, and HD DVD efforts into a single organization, known as the Connected TV business group.

The unit, which is part of Robbie Bach's Entertainment and Devices division, is headed by Enrique Rodriguez, the VP (and former WebTV developer) who has been heading the IPTV effort. Peter Barrett, who was CTO of the IPTV unit, takes on that role for the unit.

The move, which took place in October, paves the way for the different technologies, all centered around the television, to work more closely together.

I find this news interesting.  In an earlier entry, I talked about the fusion of advertising, marketing communications, and technology across different areas (targeting, measurements, academics-cum-suits, computing scientists as part of the marketing planning team). 

Methinks this piece of news which I just picked up corroborates that entry - and it is only the first of things to come.

If I were the leaders of ad holding companies, I would start feeling a little bit conscious of these acquisitions and moves, not only of Microsoft, Google and other biggies in the world of technology, but of other companies.

It is also time for ad holding companies to start thinking of themselves as more than just "specialist-content" (i.e., ads) creators.  They have to start thinking of themselves as real drivers of measurable value, built around technologies that not only streamline reaching audiences but also the message-creation and delivery processes.

(I know that sounds vague, but heck.  It's Christmas eve - and I am writing about work.  What do you expect? Haha!)

An Integrated Digital Brand Experience

With all the things that are happening in the Southeast Asian landscape in terms of digital/online explosion, there is a need to start thinking differently about how digital campaigns are designed.  It is time to build integrated brand campaigns on the internet and other digital media.

We have come way beyond banners, text links, buttons, floating icons, e-DMs, Click-through's, and other "traditional" web-advertising tactics.  The time has come for us to start thinking - seriously - about creating integrated brand experiences for our target consumers across all digital media - not just the desktop but in every single digital medium that consumers are in contact with.

Integrated communications is not a new thing.  A lot of companies have pushed themselves hard to achieve 'integrated communications' propositions to their clients.  New processes and thinking, measurements and metrics, and roles and responsibilities have been established - and branded - by agencies.

Not everyone succeeded - there are a few who have, but some are yet to come to terms with the new demands of integrated communications planning and implementation.

Whilst the response to integrated communications planning is yet to be perfected, there is a new challenge coming in - and that is the challenge of integrating different vehicles within the same medium into one fulfilling, differentiating, and profitable experience for consumers.

Integration of communications channels should go beyond "making sure that the TVC is aligned with the radio commercial and the print ad and the events and the banners online".  The integration of communications should now start looking at in-medium activities.

Specifically for the digital medium.

The digital medium is more than just a medium  - it is a platform for audiences, for content-providers, for advertisers.  And it has be seen as a "medium-as-platform" as well.  Whilst there may have been limited opportunities in integrating the experiences of consumers across different vehicles within TV, for example, or radio stations (beyond the similarities in print ads and messages), the digital medium-as-platform allows advertisers to integrate more successfully across all things digital.

The challenge now is not so much to reach as many eyeballs as possible, as frequently as possible - but to ensure that whilst the consumer is online on whatever gadget she uses to access the digital world, she experiences your brand the way you want her to experience it:  unique, differentiating, empowering, inspiring - and ultimately, profitable for her and for your brand's business.

Web Metrics Demystified | Occam's Razor by Avinash Kaushik

One of the few blogs that I actually follow and read is this site, called Occam's Razor by Avinash Kaushik.  In one of his latest posts, he talks about Web Analytics and Web Metrics, two things that I am very interested in.

I truly admire people who can make complex things easy to understand and this site wins my admiration.

Christmas Rage

I had to do some errands today at one of the biggest and most popular department stores in Singapore.

It just so happened too that whilst waiting in line at the cashier's, there was this woman who simply was rude to the cashier. She kept on saying, "Do you know who I am? Do you know how much I spent in your store?"

She did make sure that everybody heard every word she said as the cashier kept her cool.

It sure was funny - at least to me.

When I got to the cashier's, I asked what the commotion was.

The response: "Sir, Christmas rage. It happens every year."

As she handed me my bag of goodies, she said "Merry Christmas!"

The Silvers: A New Opportunity...

At least two of my favorite bloggers - Seth Godin and Steve Clayton - talked about this - the usage of  Facebook by Silvers.  Some of the comments were focused on the fact that it is hilarious - I think (like Steve) this is a great opportunity for marketeers and a significant challenge and burden to economies in Asia.

A demographic shift is set to happen in Asia - if it has not already happened. 

In this article, some countries are on the verge of actually dealing with the critical issues that a demographic shift will result to.  In Singapore, the population shifts are already being felt.

Dr. Yuwa Hendrick-Wong, an economist who works with MasterCard International, has written a book (available on Amazon.Com and is highly recommended as an additional serious read for the holidays)  about this phenomenon - citing the possibilities and challenges this shifting demographic trend are creating.,

I believe this is an opportunity - and a challenge.

And whilst at first glance, hilarious and funny - I think the issue deserves a second look.

Should digital companies start looking into these services?  Well, not right now perhaps - but 20somethings become 30somethings and 40somethings become 50somethings.  Those who are now populating Facebook will eventually be seniors.

So the question is, "What are we doing about it?"

Technorati Tags: Facebook,Demographics,Asia,Communications Planning,Communications Strategy,Strategic Planning,Aging,Ageing,Business Planning,Long-term Planning

Turning Great Data into Great, Compelling Stories...

It is commonly assumed that if you have great data, it follows that you have great stories. Sometimes even with the greatest of data, one cannot easily create stories that are interesting, compelling, and remarkable. And the other 'round is true: one can tell great stories even without data. (Think Nixon, Clinton, and all th consulants and lawyers you know.)

It also doesn't help if the data is static: just pure tables full of percentages. I - for one - have not mastered the art of coaxing stories out of percentages. I know of people who can create great stories out of nowhere. But, man... I think I am not one of those yet.

I am reminded of one of my colleagues, Prashant, and his words of wisdom: Tell stories, not regurgitated data.

To compel. To be remarkable. To enroll. These go beyond data.

It takes guts. And an integrative mind.

A Follow-up...

As soon as I got home, I got a comment from one of my friends about my previous entry.  His comment - sent through IM - was (and I paraphrase very loosely):  "Isn't it ironic that the same company that owns that brand that campaigns for real beauty is the same company that produced that TVC in Australia that I think demeans women?"

Here is the TVC he's talking about:

Well, I really can't say much about it - but my friend is right:  When you manage different brands that target different kinds of people, you will tend to find discrepancies and inconsistencies on how these brands are expressed.  But even then, shouldn't there be an overarching philosophy that the company should adhere to?

I am not sure of the answer.  I heard that the two ads did pretty well in achieving their revenue goals.  The first one got theirs by communicating "real beauty" and encouraging women to accept themselves as themselves; the second got to their goals by communicating something else.

I guess this is where the "corporate vision" does play a significant role.

All is fair, as they say, in love and war - and in marketing and in achieving revenue goals. 

But then again, perhaps not.

No wonder people don't trust advertising anymore...

Truth in advertising? Not.

And still another one from MSN Soapbox...

If I drove this way, I think my mom would kill me.

That is, if my driving doesn't kill me first.

 

 

Driving (S)kills I never learned

This is not communications-related...

... but it is funny.  I wish I could do this to some people I (and you probably) know.

 

 

Video: The Mother Of All Pranks

Popfly...: Is it me or is it a bit on the slow side?

I just picked up today (again - I was invited several months ago to give PopFly.Ms a try and I truly did.  I enjoyed playing around with it - but had some problems when I started embedding it on my Windows Live Spaces blog.

I picked it up again today - and there were more functionalities and more stuff that I can play around with.  (And boy, I have a deeper understanding and appreciation of the ideas of mash-ups and tagging... See earlier entries on tags).

Then I searched for articles about Popfly and one them is this which announces the pubic launch of Popfly - Microsoft Launches Drag-And-Drop App Builder Popfly.

Microsoft just demoed on stage at the Web 2.0 conference a slick Silverlight application development service called Popfly, which just opened up in beta. Popfly lets anyone, even non-coders, create web mashups without writing a single line of code. It’s all drag-and-drop in the browser (based on Silverlight, Microsoft’s answer to Flash/Flex and Ajax).

The demo showed how to build a digital photo book of all your Facebook friends. It started with a box representing Facebook, and in a pane on the left were listed other data sets that can connect to Facebook, such as photos on another service or Technorati rankings. By simply dragging and dropping icons representing these sets of data and connecting them together with lines, a Silverlight application was built on the fly.

Of course, like any demo, this one was a bit canned. But if Popfly turns out to be half as easy as Microsoft made it look on stage, it should have lots of takers.

As an aspiring developer (and potentially, one who will just be aspiring until he gets the time to really sit down and learn it by heart), it was a great toy to play with.

But is it just me and my PC - but is it a bit slow?

I had the same old problems with embedding it into my blog:  the apps seemed to slow down.  I tried it on both my Windows PC and my Mac - and both at a standstill as it the boxes containing my Popfly creations were being loaded.

Hmmm.

Anyway, it was stil fun.  Much more fun than Yahoo Tubes.

The Fusion of Advertising, Marketing Communications, and Technology: The Inevitable Future

I am going out on a limb here and say that the fusion of advertising, marketing communications, and technology (from software to hardware to online platforms) is inevitable.  I will go even further and say that it is imperative that this integration happen:  it is the only way that advertising, marketing communications, and media planning/buying can move forward.

There are a number of areas that I think will be shifted significantly by this pending integration:

1.  In the area of targeting - the Target of One.  Technology will allow advertisers to go to individual-level data even further - thereby allowing them to target directly and efficiently people who are indeed profitable to their business, have a need for their business, and will respond to their business propositions.  There will be barriers in the form of privacy concerns - but consumers and audiences will (probably) see the benefit of such moves of marketers when marketers themselves see the real, measurable benefit of going beyond wishy-washy demographic, psychographic targeting based on "what's been done in the past, what I feel in my heart".

2.  In the area of measurements. Because technology will allow advertisers to analyze individual-level data, percentages - and GRPs, Reach, Frequency, Cost per Thousand People Exposed - will be a thing of the past.  OK, not a thing of the past - but secondary measures.  A new critical measure will need to emerge (and I hope it doesn't get called "engagement", for crying out loud).

3.  The academician will find herself mingling with suits and creative directors.  The academics, the "nerds", the math-wizards, and those who dream in algorithms have made significant impacts in the field of technology:  that is no surprise - and is even  an understatement.  But the academician will find herself immersed in the world of marketing communications.

4.  Computing scientists themselves will be apart of the marketing planning team.  Today, most predictions are based on "what have we done in the past - oh, 20%!  Bump it up a little bit".  The future, which sees marketing and the academe fusing into one (or at least coexisting), will see computing scientists being a part of the marketing planning team.  They will be talking of projections, algorithms, simulations, sensitivity analysis - things that go beyond the usual.

Of course, it will not be business as usual.

So... why are some companies still too slow to pick this up?

UGC versus the Pro's: Is it really a battle?

Picked this up from eMarketer's User-Generated Content Still a Minority Pursuit.

Nearly two-thirds of consumers surveyed who watch video on their computers, mobile devices or digital media players are watching professionally-produced TV programming, according to ChoiceStream's "2007 Survey of Viewer Trends in TV & Online Video," conducted by MarketTools.

Choicestream said that the percentage of pro content would increase over the next six months.

Although this could be interpreted as a sign that user-generated content is on the wane, the research company said that traditional TV watchers were simply learning to shift their viewing towards other devices.

(Emphasis mine)

As entertainment expectations shift from the traditional sources (TV, magazines) to new, more personal media, digital platform and content companies ought to rise up - very quickly - to the occasion.

imitation as the best form of flattery... i guess?

Link: Seth's Blog: Building a platform (and thinking about Google's Knol).

Anyway, I got back from my trip to Google and crunched some numbers and posted this good news about Squidoo. We’ve hit profitability, grown to be three to five times as big as others in our space and reached more than 125,000 users. A good day.

The very next day, Google announced Knol, a direct lift from Squidoo circa 2005. Apparently, Google wants to be in our business. It’s almost enough to ruin your day.

"Imitation is the best form of flattery" or as Seth Godin says, "of endorsement" - with Google's launch of Knol. 

The first time I read about Knol from Google, the first thing that came to mind was Squidoo and Wikipedia.

Just exactly is Google up to?

I know it's a cutthroat competition out there - but... seriously?

and they still don't get it, do they?

From Advertisers Befuddled By Internet, Prefer Cluelessness of TV of the Silicon Valley Insider

Disney's Steve Wadsworth, head of the Internet division, summarizes:

"This industry looks like it can't get out of its own way...We need measurement of the audience and their use of the system that's clear, simple and actionable for a marketer. You need comparability with other media."

So THAT's the problem. That's why Google grew its US ad revenue 46% in Q3 and the aggregate revenue of 18 traditional media companies grew 1%--because Internet media companies can't make it simple.

.., Internet advertising is blowing the doors off, and the reason is that Internet measurement systems are NOT simple and vapid like those in TV and print advertising. Thankfully, the Internet is NOT comparable to these finger-in-the-wind advertising media--and never will be.

Could Internet advertising be made simpler and even more precise? Of course. But it is traditional media that need to get "comparability" with the Internet, not the other way around.

I couldn't agree more.

I recall those days when we were trying very, very hard to measure the audiences of internet as a medium - using concepts such as GRPs, Reach and Frequency, and "effective frequency".  When I started working on such projects, there was a knot - inexplainable know - in my gut:  There seems to be something wrong with this.

I raised it to those who were "experts" in the company suggesting that there was something innately wrong in measuring exposures on the internet (if one can even call them just "mere exposures") as one would measure, say, TV or radio exposures.  At that point in time, we couldn't even agree how to measure outdoor ads in the same way that we were measuring TV ads.

Then the internet - with its far richer, far more complicated, far more complex interactions with the audiences?

My point back then - and still is now:  You can't retrofit the internet back to standards that we've used for other media - because it is entirely different.  It demands a new measure.  And if that measure - whatever that is that encompasses the dimensionality of the internet - is arrived at, then we work it back to TV.

I was told I was too academic - and "well, if it works in the US, it should work in Asia".

Besides, "we just need a number - and CPM should cut it".

Oh well.

Communications Planning = Entertainment Planning

The more I think about it, the more I think that communications planning is all about planning how to embed a brand's message in the way consumers and audiences entertain themselves.

Whether it is on TV, on radio, on the internet, on SNS sites, on CGC sites... It seems to me that it's all about creating great messages that flow with the mindset, the mood, the context of consumers at that point in time.

With this thought, brands could either disrupt the entertainment that audiences choose for themselves - or simply go with the flow.