From my earlier post...
So... are social moods - measured by the stock market - related to investments in advertising? Are marketing decision-makers being moved by social moods - indirectly through the stock market? Are their investments in advertising and marketing being influenced by social moods?
Below is a chart showing the monthly stock market index in Singapore from February 2003 until September 2009 -charted against the advertising spends for the same period. At first glance, there seems to be no relationship:
The blue line - which depicts the stock market - seems to on a significant linear growth trend from 2003 up to the end of the middle of 2007, after which we see a significant decline. After this, we see significant uplifts as of 2009.
The red line - which depicts the monthly advertising spends in Singapore - seem to be stable. The variations - at closer look - seems to be largely dependent on seasonality; no discernible pattern or trend seemed to be emerging.
There is however, a hidden story: If we subjected these data sets to a simple linear regression analysis, whilst taking note of the seasonality, we see a very significant relationship between stocks and adspends on a monthly basis.
We see an adjusted r-squared of 0.692, with an F-observed of 15.786 and a corresponding probability of less than 0.0001. [That this could have occurred by chance alone is less than 0.01%.]
Essentially, the model above suggests that close to 70% of the movement in advertising spends can be explained by the model which incorporates the stock market index and monthly/seasonality indices.
So - what does this mean?
