marginally subversive

it's turtles all the way down...

For some reason, the phrase "turtles upon turtles upon turtles" has been ringing in my head for the last couple of days.  I first heard of this in my first year in my computing theory courses when we were discussing recursion and infinite recursion (and its implementation in C/C++).

I found this from Wikipedia:

William James, father of American psychology, tells of meeting an old lady who told him the Earth rested on the back of a huge turtle. "But, my dear lady", Professor James asked, as politely as possible, "what holds up the turtle?" "Ah", she said, "that's easy. He is standing on the back of another turtle." "Oh, I see", said Professor James, still being polite. "But would you be so good as to tell me what holds up the second turtle?" "It's no use, Professor", said the old lady, realizing he was trying to lead her into a logical trap. "It's turtles-turtles-turtles, all the way!"

I didn't really think much of it until I read the article from Wikipedia - it's actually quite profound that even cosmology - and theology - are somehow affected by "turtles all the way down"!

Thinking through it, it's probably ringing in my head because of "causation" - how one thing leads to another and how the former gets created by something else... ad infinitum.

It's one of the things I am thinking about at the moment:

Do companies advertise because they have sales - and therefore, "sales drives advertising"?

Or do companies have sales because they advertise - and therefore, "advertising drives sales"?

Or in the stock market:

Do investors really drive the price of a stock down or up?

Or do investors get driven by the price of a stock?

Ahh.

It's turtles all the way down.

:D

Thanks to Andreas. at Flickr.Com for the photo, Turtle Tower

realizations on a friday

[it is quite interesting when a eureka moment happens.  they come in the most unexpected of moments and places - in the bathroom (too much of a cliche - but it is true), in the shower, whilst commuting, whilst in a meeting (rarely for me), in conversations with people not at all related to the question.  it is these moments that make thinking and reflecting quite worthwhile (as if in and of themselves these didn't have their own 'pleasures').]

one thing that i realized yesterday was how badly firms need to have strong foundations to build on.

companies cannot build on shaky foundations.  you can't build buildings on shifting sand - somehow, you have got to find a way to reach solid ground under the sand (however long and expensive it takes) for a building to withstand the challenges of time.

but foundations are also far more than just financial foundations.  surely, profits and cash-flows are critical to a business to function.  but these are merely pillars that help build the foundations of a company.

there are people.

their past, current and future intellectual capacities.

knowledge - from the past - and the company's ability to access those knowledge.

knowledge that are not necessarily housed in databases or forms or in any form of storage device.

knowledge that are not even considered as knowledge.

belief in the leadership.

the relationships amongst individuals within the organization - on differing levels.

the relationships amongst groups and amongst sub-groups within the organization.

the interrelationships amongst leaders, groups, sub-groups, and individuals - and their 'agenda'.

power's distribution - real and perceived and 'official'.

and a whole lot more.

but one this is for sure: you can't go higher unless there is a solid foundation.

and a solid foundation cannot be built when people, knowledge, power, leadership, culture - and profits - are aligned.

a misalignment - however slight, in my humble opinion - will result to tragedy in the same way that a butterfly flapping its wings in Sao Paolo can result to a typhoon in the Philippines.

the challenge for companies is to manage these alignments - however complex, however long it takes.

Thanks to Grufnik at Flickr.Com for the photo.

when you buy a lottery ticket...

Seth Godin writes that when people buy a lottery ticket, they are not really buying a lottery ticket: they are buying "(t)he thrill of possibility, the chance for recognition, the chemical high of anticipation".

I half-agree.

When people buy a lottery ticket, they do buy something more than just a ticket.

They buy hope.

They buy dreams.

They buy the possibility that they could provide for themselves and their families and be comfortable the rest of their lives.

They buy the chance that it is possible to like those who have won before.

It is not just the anticipation.

It is not just the chance for recognition.

It is not just the 'thrill of the possible'.

It is hope that they are buying.

The principles of Behavioural Economics can make communications work harder says Janet Hull, consultant head of marketing at the IPA..

via mediatel.co.uk

I am quite surprised that it is only now that marketing practitioners are actually asking the question whether behavioral economics, communications, and marketing are linked.

Hmmm. Isn't that obvious?

OK. Let's say for the sake of argument that a marketing practitioner is not familiar with "behavioral economics" and what it is.

But surely, one has studied in university basic economics - and what is economics? The study of the allocation of finite resources to optimize utility - however "utility" is measured (e.g., returns, production, revenues, production, happiness... ok, perhaps not the last one...)

Isn't it obvious then that economics has a place in marketing and in communications since everyday, we deal with decisions on how to optimize finite budgets to get the best returns on marketing moneys?

Now put in behavioral: That suggests... people. Individuals. Consumers.

Put the two together: study of people and individuals as consumers or audiences who are faced with options and are motivated to maximize their finite resources - money, time, attention, emotions - to generate the best returns.

I thought discrete choice theory, conjoint analysis, and similar techniques - and Bayesian statistics that allow for hierarchical and individual level analytics - are beginning to be a part of the world of marketing and communications.

Red herring or red hot? C'mon.

================================
What is behavioral economics?

From Wikipedia:

Behavioral economics is that branch of one,which deals with the study and application of analysis with scientific approach on social,emotional factors for understanding the consumers,investors and the market,and the resources.

The field is primarily concerned with the bounds of rationality (selfishness, self-control) of economic agents. Behavioral models typically integrate insights from psychology with neo-classical economic theory. Behavioral Finance has become the theoretical basis for technical analysis.

Damocles' Sword

I am enamored by the myth (story?) of Damocles' Sword.

From About.Com, here is what they have to say:

One variant of this is the Sword of Damocles, which is used to describe a sense of foreboding and might translate into English idiom as "walk a mile in my shoes." Here's the story about Damocles' sword:

Dionysius (II) was a fourth century B.C. tyrant of Syracuse, a city in Magna Graecia, the Greek area of southern Italy. To all appearances Dionysius was very rich and comfortable, with all the luxuries money could buy, tasteful clothing and jewelry, and delectable food. He even had court flatterers (adsentatores) to inflate his ego. One of these ingratiators was the court sycophant, Damocles. Damocles used to make comments to the king about his wealth and luxurious life. One day when Damocles complimented the tyrant on his abundance and power, Dionysius turned to Damocles and said, "If you think I'm so lucky, how would you like to try out my life?"

Damocles readily agreed, and so Dionysius ordered everything to be prepared for Damocles to experience what life as Dionysius was like. Damocles was enjoying himself immensely... until he noticed a sharp sword hovering over his head, that was suspended from the ceiling by a horse hair. This, the tyrant explained to Damocles, was what life as ruler was really like.

Damocles, alarmed, quickly revised his idea of what made up a good life, and asked to be excused. He then eagerly returned to his poorer, but safer life.

I also found this image which I found pretty amusing from CartoonStock.Com:

Well...

the age of shortcuts

The age of the internet ushered in the age of information.  That is a no-brainer.  Google and its cohorts have lowered down the cost of acquiring data and information.  Advances in computing sciences have allowed us to process these information with great ease.  Even artificial intelligence is being used now in determining what relationships exist amongst different kinds of data-points.  We have gone to the point of automating trades in finance and in the stock market [rightly or wrongly, I don’t know and I have no opinion about].  In marketing, we have also reached the point where data and supposedly, expert algorithms are being used to aid in the decision-making.

I have no problems with that.

Technology is good.

But the age of technology – the age of cheap or at least, easily-accessible information – has also created a new mindset that is slowly creeping into the marketing world.

The age of shortcuts.

And that is what’s really ticking me off.

Spidey’s uncle summed it all up:  With great power comes great responsibility.

Technology has empowered us – but at the same time, it bestowed upon us (whether we like it or not) greater responsibility to manage the data and information that we get.

Just because equations and models suggest that “this way is the right way” doesn’t necessarily mean it is the right way.  (The concept of statistics is all based on probability – that we are not sure in spite of the amount of data and information that we have.)

We cannot yet peer into the future with great accuracy – we cannot predict the movements of markets, of the earth, of storms, of people.

All models can do is point us to the right directions and potential options – but the decisions remain with the “unsophisticated” brain of marketeers and communications experts.

 

Again, I go back to Martin Luther King, Jr.:

Rarely do we find men who willingly engage in hard, solid thinking. There is an almost universal quest for easy answers and half-baked solutions. Nothing pains some people more than having to think.

storytelling in a chart of circles and axes

via charts.jorgecamoes.com

(OK. For the sake of argument - but you'd see it won't really matter in answering the question, let's say the vertical axis is Market Penetration; the horizontal axis is Competitive Penetration; and the size of the bubble is the company's revenues. The one on the left has colors - let colors be the different geographic markets you're in.)

Which chart is better?

My answer: Depends.

Chart 1 gives me the entire story - although presenting it probably will be hellish, it would probably do good in a written report.

Chart 2 might be simplistic to some - but it highlights one and only one city. Most likely this would be the chart I'd use in a presentation to tell a story.

One thing I am learning - tell a story in bits and pieces without losing the plot. And never, ever be the slave of slides.

p

holistic enterprise-wide measurements and business performance

Measuring and improving employee retention is an increasingly vital challenge which is essential to the smooth function of “multi-location” operations that involve far flung managers and staff personnel. The power of key-driver analyses not only identifies what is important to improving employee performance; it provides a measurable basis for each business unit to target the specific areas that needed to improve. Not all management teams are equally good at communication, training, etc. The employee survey system that was developed lets managers know their real effectiveness on the important issues that impact employee performance, and how to improve the company-employee relationship.

via marketresearchbulletin.com

From www.marketresearchbulletin.com

The last couple of weeks, I have reading up on Enterprise Risk Management - ERM - in prep for my attempt at getting a certification in risk management from GARP and PRMIA next year. The goal of ERM is simple: to create a culture that acknowledges the fact that everyone in the company is a risk-manager.

This entry from MarketResearchBulettin.Com made me think: in addition to ERM - and perhaps, even prior to establishing an ERM - there must be an integrated, enterprise-wide measurement system that (well) integrates performance metrics, socialization metrics, "shared culture and values" metrics, financial metrics, project management and efficiency metrics, and others.

True: this will make life for CFOs and CROs harder.

But that may be the key to a sustainably profitable, positive-cashflow company.

Measuring Outdoor Channels' Effectiveness

ADGist™ measures the effectiveness of print and billboards in a single glance. It’s a more realistic way to test ad effectiveness since most print and billboards get only a single glance when a person is flipping through a magazine or driving on the road. It is often thought that ll the money spent on the majority of ads that people don’t pay much attention to is wasted, but is this really the case? ADGist™ assesses that.

via marketresearchbulletin.com

... by measuring the initial impact (or "impression") of the ad. The original research is from PROMPT RESEARCH INSIGHTS (http://promptresearchinsights.com).

My take: Interesting - and potentially powerful in a very attention-deficit age. But what would interest me more would be how the indicators that AdGist comes up with are related to actual behavioral and/or attitudinal shifts.

Outdoor - which is one of the fastest growing media in the APAC region due to changes in audience lifestyles [more mobility, less in-home activities] and technological opportunities [caveat: I consider bluecasting, infrared casting, location-based SMS/MMS - whilst on the mobile phone - outdoor] - needs to be more measurable and 'tradeable'.

I firmly believe that

1. buying posters based on 'anecdotal, location-based justifications' should end;

2. approximating "GRPs" and "deweighting" them based on self-reported attention to the medium in order to justify our media plans should stop; and

3. transforming print ads - images, layout, text, and all - into outdoor posters must also be trashed.

I hope that ADGist(TM) could help with that.

one of my favorite Pinoy ads...

via youtube.com

Posted via web from experimentalist