marginally subversive

of statistical and econometric models and reality

A former colleague of mine who was one of those few econometricians who could make a non-econometrician understand what they are trying to say by focusing on the "spirit of the equations" (his words) had a very great way of putting how to approach stat/econometric models.

This is how he said it:

A model helps you grasp reality easily.  It doesn't mean it is real.  If it were real, then life would be a lot simpler that it really is.  It also doesn't mean it is NOT real: it is an abstraction of what is real - i.e., lifted off what is really happening.  The end goal of the abstraction is for us to be able to understand reality.

Think of it as the map of London Undeground:

This helps you go around the City.  But it doesn't mean this is exactly how it is in reality.

If you really want to look at how the tubes are laid down in London, here is how it looks like:

The tubes are laid down complicated - but the schematic diagram of the tubes' stations makes it a lot easier to go around the City.

That's what equations and models are for: Guideposts.  Schematic diagrams of complex phenomena.  That one can then use with confidence to get from one point to another.

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In the years that I have been working with statistical/econometric models, I have observed that there are three main categories of people - from clients to agencies to finance people - based on their responses to the models.

There are those who would look at the innards of a model, turn it upside down, question every probability value and statistic, and attempt to backtest/stress-test the model - until they are satisfied it works.  After such satisfaction, the equation is the end-all/be-all of decisions and choices.

Then there are those who would look at the model - and turn up their noses towards it, with the belief that the equaiton cannot capture reality - that it is just a set of equations and numbers.  That after all is said and done, it is the "human mind, wisdom, and experience that really count in making decisions".  There's always the belief that "not everything can be captured by an equation - situations are far too complex to be simplified into one equation".

Then there are those who would look at the model, take an interest in its explanatory power, question its validity, backtest it, stress test it - and then look at the implications of the various parts of the model and how it could affect reality and decisions that they have to make into the future.

Thanks to Kottke.Org for the photos.

of systems, processes, and structures

Systems, processes and structures should empower people, not limit their potentials.  They exist to provide order and limits - from which one can jump and be creative.  When they no longer serve their purpose, they must be discarded and changed.  There is nothing more frustrating than being "limited" by "what's always been done".

Just because they've always been done doesn't mean they are right.

And just because they've always delivered results doesn't mean they will continue to do so.

Change is the only thing that is constant - even amongst consumers at the bottom of the income pyramid.

lenten season

My sister just reminded me that it's the Christian Lenten Season. I won't say that I am a devout Catholic - but Lent and Easter are to me the most important seasons of the church calendar.

For me, Lent is all about humility and acceptance that we are human. And Easter is all about the 'shouting on top of the world' that we are - indeed - human!

I know. It baffles me sometimes too - my beliefs, I mean.

What I learned from school...

Seth Godin asks in his blog what school is for. 

Seems like a simple question, but given how much time and money we spend on it, it has a wide range of answers, many unexplored, some contradictory. I have a few thoughts about education, how we use it to market ourselves and compete, and I realized that without a common place to start, it's hard to figure out what to do.

He writes down a starter list of what a school ought to be in his entry - and I think all is good, though surely, there could be more what a school is for.

What a school's purpose is for me?  I guess I never really thought about it - but what i learned from school, all four levels of them (kindergarten, elementary, high-school, university) could point me to what school is about.

Photo from my_new_winter_coat

So what are the things I learned from school?

1. I learned that there are some things I could do on my own - like tie my shoelaces, solve problems in algebra and calculus, read and analyze the works of Gabriel Marcel and Immanuel Kant - and there are things that I couldn't do on my own - like understanding firsthand the dynamics of groups and social psychology, understanding what partial derivatives are and how I can visualize them, and how to explain in lay-person terms the philosophy of Socrates and of Pierre Teilhard de Chardin.
2. I learned that there are classes that one could take for granted - 'military training', where we spent all day marching around and being 'abused' by our 'superiors' for having the wrong haircut - and those that one should take seriously - philosophy, theology, biology, mathematics.
3. I also learned that teachers are human, too - and they can make mistakes.  However, the greatest teachers I have had are those who had the gumption and the courage to say "I honestly don't know" and "That's one way of putting it - and I see your point".  And they'd get back to you with a rebuttal - or further questions and thoughts - the day after.  (In other words, they took the time to have a look at your viewpoint and considered it!)
4. I learned that teachers who give their students "A's" way before the classes start and the exams are filed and papers were read and graded are the ones who get remembered.
   I had a teacher in Uni who saw in me the potential of being a "lawyer-doctor".  He told me on the final day of class that I would make a good lawyer-doctor, and I said, "I can't even decide what to be, sir!"  And he said, "Trust me - you'd be a good lawyer and a good doctor.  You'd do good."  And right before me, he wrote my final grade on that 'official form': an "A".
   I certainly believed I didn't deserve an "A".
   And he said, as I was on my way out, "Believe in yourself - I see the lawyer-doctor in you.  Try to see that in you as well.  You might find it - you might not.  It doesn't matter.  Just see for yourself."
   He was my favorite teacher (who gave me a hard time on my final oral exams in Anatomy).
5. I learned that friends do come and go.  And whether they go and disappear from my life - or whether they stay on as I grow old - is within my realm of choice. 
   I still hear of friends who see themselves every year or every month.  They are the ones I used to hang out with. 
   I don't see much of them anymore.  Because I have made a choice to live my life away from home - not a good nor a bad choice, just that I made a choice.  And it's all good.
6. The worst times brings out the best - or the worst - in people.
   While working on my theses with two of my closest friends - Tanya and George - the best in me soared.  I discovered theories and techniques that were not common or that were not being taught in the university curriculum.  I spent nights and days in the library doing the research  - and validating all the stuff I got.  That was the good side - and it was all because of the desire to hurdle that thing called a thesis.
   The thesis also brought out the worst in me: I almost got into a fist-fight with George.  And for one whole week - during that crucial one-week before the analysis of the data - I didn't speak with either George or Tanya.
   That was the worst in me.
7. "Education" does not just happen in the classrooms.  And the teachers, lecturers, and professors are not just the ones teaching.  We were all students of one another - classmates, friends, peers, barkadas, study groups, professors...  And in one way or another, we teach each other about things academic and of life.
8. I am - and we all are - the sum-total of the education that we received.
   If someone were to ask me what were the most important courses I took in college, I wouldn't be able to say with conviction which ones would they be.  I'd probably say Philosophy of Man (or Metaphysics, as they call it now, I think), Philosophy of Religion, Theology of Liberation, and my core Psychology classes.
   But then again, Comparative Vertebrate Anatomy taught me about shining through in the darkest of hours.  Zoology taught me the beauty of life.  Botany opened my eyes not just to dicots and monocots - but to the order that there was in nature.  Chemistry - both lectures and lab sessions - opened my eyes to the beauty of structures and disciplined approaches.  Computing sciences furthered that.  Calculus and linear algebra taught me to respect the numbers - and psychology taught me to go beyond the numbers.
   I really can't say.

Photo from m00by

Am I better person because of the education that I received?  I think so.  Had I been through something different, would I still be who I am now?  I don't know.  And I guess, I wouldn't know.

All I know is that what I am now - however I may be - is because of the education that I received.  And how I learned to learn.

John Baldoni writes in the Harvard Business Publishing blogs about Mr. Colin Powell's decision to endorse Barack Obama - something which probably took a lot of Americans by surprise (pleasantly or otherwise).

Mr. Baldoni says that

Powell used all of his persuasive skills to describe the context and the reasons for his decisions. Studying that explanation can serve as a good template for explaining a decision clearly and forcefully. In essence, Powell acknowledged the enormity of the issues as well as the reasons for his advocacy.

And that how Mr. Powell laid down his reasoning for this presumably tough, political, and potentially career-limiting move for Mr. Powell is a great example of how leaders can arrive at decisions particularly during tough times.

Mr. Baldoni's observations are as follows:

Provide the big picture.
Make the case.
Declare the moral imperative.
Look to the future.

I think that leaders and managers ought to heed and remember these 'tips'.

Quiet Leadership

there is beauty in just quietly leading - leading myself, leading others.

i have been told that i am too quiet - too polite - too shy - too non-aggressive.  but i am not about to shout to the whole world how great i am or how great my opinions are or how wonderful things are inside my head.  quiet strength.  quiet leadership.  a silent pillar that can be relied on.

 

i have also been told that i am one who is happily stuck in the middle.  that i am happy to be "not in the line of fire" and just be a "support role" in the lives of others - in the careers of others.

the funny thing is, i am comfortable with that.  not that i don't want to be "in the line of fire" - when called to be there, i am there. 

in fact, i have been there.  it's a nice place to be in - the excitement, the exhilaration of every win, and the pain of every defeat and loss.

but what i am saying is this: i am happy wherever i am called to be in.

for now, I am called to be a pillar so another can rise up.  I am called to be a wind beneath somebody else's wing.  and that is fine.

the glory is never mine - it is God's. and all i do is manifest His Glory through my humble being.

a quiet leadership.  a quiet stronghold. a quiet fortress.

perhaps just living up to the Chinese name that I have given myself years ago: Li An.  Quiet strength.

"Problem at the Office?"

Every now and then, I'd get this question:  "Problem at the office?"  Largely, it is 'evoked' by the dark circles under my eyes.  (For the record: It is genetic.  Nothing I do can remove the bags nor the dark circle.  Believe me, I have tried.)

Image from BusinessWeek; illustration by Ray Vella.

BusinessWeek came up with this interesting article in their latest issue about problems at the office - and in addition, they looked at 'generational tensions'.  However, what really interested me was the similarities of themes underneath the different problems that we all encounter.

We strive for work-life balance.  And we try our best to maintain it by getting in touch with the Tech God or Tech Goddess in us (otherwise known as the nerd).  In doing so, we get dependent on technologies - and then suddenly, the very gadget that was supposed to empower us to achieve work-life balance is now a source of stress.  So we go to "new age seminars" and "zen seminars" - and tune out.  At first, there is the usual "I cannot live without emails and laptops and the internet and my BlackBerry..."  We get through that rather easily (at least in my case and a few friends') - what really is 'stressful' is the night before the return to work - and the first few weeks after work.  It's as if the world stopped - or accelerated? - when we were away.  One thousand emails unread - most of the were needed yesterday - or worse, the week before.

You get the picture.

Anyway, I think this piece was a good read.  It made me smile - and think.

As far as I am concerned, all these shall pass.  These are all ephemeral - and transient.  What is essential, as the Little Prince said, is invisible to the eye.

Or not.

On Networking, Schmoozing, and Building "Street Creds"

I am perhaps the worst "networker" around.  An introvert - bordering on being a hermit, I have been one who has had to make an effort to socialize.  I am - what you may call - a "learned, really-trying-hard extrovert".

Through the course of my career, I have learned the value of networking - not just schmoozing part, but perhaps more importantly, building a network of people who trust, believe, and are confident in me and my capabilities.

My ex-boss, KT, calls this - in one of our recent conversations - "spreading seeds of goodwill and excellence".  I couldn't have defined it better.  Across time, you'd see these seeds blooming into plants.

I am heeding the advice of Jeremiah Owyang and cutting/pasting *shamelessly* what he has to say about the art and the science (I think it is a science - there is a structure, there needs to be a structure...) to networking.

Thanks, Mr. Owyang.

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Here’s a few things I’ve learned, and hope you intake, invest, and pass on:

1) You’re always looking for the next opportunity, simply shutting down what else is in the market is fool hearted. It doesn’t mean you need to jump ship before 1 month, or 1 year, but it means you should be talking to recruiters, companies, and hiring managers to see what next skills are needed now, and in the future. This will actually help your current employer, as you continue to skill up, take on new projects, as they invest in you. Remember, even if you work for someone else, you are a company of one.

2) Those who ignore the party/conversation/network when they are content and decide to drop in when they need the network may not succeed. It’s pretty easy to spot those that are just joining the network purely to take –not to give. Therefore, be part of the party/conversation/network before you need anything from anyone. Start now, and continue to build relationships by giving now: share knowledge, help others, and become a trusted node and connector, not just an outlying ‘dot’ of a comet that swings in every 4 years or so.

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Tags: Career, Jeremiah Owyang, Networking, Networking Strategies, Career-building, Growing, Personal Growth

Why Gen-X'ers are not feeling the love...

I am a 30something gen-x'er.  I entered the workplace when the world was so excited about the internet - and computers and Windows.  Then the tech-boom  - and the subsequent bubble - came.  Suddenly, things were not so good as they were supposed to be.

Gen-X'ers I believe are far more controlling - far more independent and far more of a gamesman and a gameswoman than the "corporate, yes men and women" that the boomers were.  We challenged the status quo - asked questions - and never really got answers.

Some of us had given up - and were assimilated by the big companies and borgs.  Some of us are still struggling with the challenges of being independent.  Some of us are still straddling between being our own person - and a corporate executive Monday to Friday - that sometimes we are scared of change - and yet clamor for change.

And the balance - that darn balance between work and personal life - is still out there somewhere.

Argh.

In this article from Tammy Erickson, there are ten reasons why Gen-X'ers are not entirely feeling the love - in spite of companies needing our expertise.

One thing that Erickson does not mention - that I think should be there in the list of reasons why Gen-X'ers are not feeling the love - is because we're too fed up with hypocrisy.  It's no fault of the companies - it is perhaps the result of the system that we are in.

We hear of companies that are saying "our number one resource is our people - and our employees are our talent" - to the point that they set up talent management divisions, team-building and skill-enhancing projects, and on-job/classroom style training.

Only to be discarded and disregarded at the lower levels of the management rung.

Let's be honest: Gen-X'ers wanted to change the world.  We wanted the world to be a different place from our parents.  When Gen-X'ers came to be, we were on the verge of a technological and sociological mindshift - that suddenly stopped and we all stumbled.

We still want to change the world - but we've been stymied and and we've seen through the facade and the hyprocrisy of companies that say "we value you" - words that do not get translated to real actions and policies that affect us personally.

We've dreamt so much of a better world - and we've been disillusioned once.  We've tried to straddle several aspects of our lives - hoping that one of these - or ALL of these - will coalesce into one big whole that will be different from the lives that our parents and older siblings have led.

But still, we're not being heard.

Come on.  Give us some credit.

And to my fellow Gen-X'ers... it still is not over.  There is still an opportunity to change the world - and make it all different for us and our families.  We may not be the most tech-savvy and most digitally-savvy generation there is (hey, boomers don't even know how to program their VCRs and have given up; at least we tried - and we kept on trying until we got it right).  But we surely have the guts to get through this again.

We've gone through a lot.  And we can go through more.  A lot more.

"You're downgraded!"

A few months ago, I was in a quandary - with all the questions converging on only one theme:  Do I want to be a big fish in a small pond or be a small fish in a big, big ocean?

Egged on by something - perhaps, pride and the want to experiment - I tried to be a small fish in a big, vast ocean.  Faced with prospects of growth - financially, personally, and intellectually - I dove in.

Then I realized - 6 months on - that I wasn't ready.

The big ocean is filled with currents - waves that cause boats to move and sway, and sometimes capsize - and strong undercurrents that are far stronger than the waves on the surface of the stormy sea.

I decided that I was a small fish - I had no control over my destiny and that I was transformed from a manager of managers to a mere support player whose main remit was well, change colors in a PowerPoint presentation and extract numbers and calculate percentage growth rates from a simple spreadsheet.

The day ended with me feeling not having accomplished anything - and not having grown an inch.  And that is in spite of having crossed out all the things that are listed on my so-called "treadmill". 

True, I had the chance - for the first time in my life - to come home at 6pm and see the sunset from my apartment (perched on top of a hill, overlooking the skyline of Singapore).  I had - for the first time in my life - the luxury of walking leisurely towards my gym appointments - instead of getting warmed up whilst running to catch the train and avoid being penalized by my gym trainer.

I know a lot of people would want to trade places with me - and yes, that there are a million people - girls and boys - who would kill for this kind of job.

But I needed a reason.

I needed to be imbued with passion - with the feeling that when I lay myself at the end of the day on my bed, I had something done.  Something that is far bigger than me.  Something that could potentially change the world.  Something that could have expanded my mind - a little bit.

I am passionate - but what I have learned is that it takes a little bit to 'light my fire'.  Once lit and kindled, it gives off such warmth, such glow...  Hoping that others, too, could be inspired and be lit and their fires kindled.

And that was it: that was why I threw in the towel and surrendered.

Because I wanted to be a part of something bigger - something that could potentially change the world - something that could change how people see things and relate to others and other things - something that could potentially be bigger and great and well, hope-filled.

BusinessWeek's latest issue had described this as a variation of the "phantom limb syndrome".  Dr. Jerry Sulkowicz says this in his latest column:

Your experience sounds like a variation on "phantom limb syndrome," in which a person receives signals from a limb that's no longer there. Clinging to the phantom executive inside you, I suspect, is your way of dealing with the loss of ... your authority. The best cure, of course, is a new and better position, but that may take a while.

He offers this advice:

How to cope in the interim? The strong emotions you're feeling now will fade in time, but only if you don't make matters worse by punishing yourself. You've suffered a blow, but that doesn't mean you have to lose your self-respect or your sense of who you are. In my experience advising CEOs who have lost their jobs, such feelings (including a sense of humiliation) are frequently self-imposed.

And he further adds that:

Satisfying work, like a satisfying life, is rarely achieved through a straight, upward climb.

True.

But to satisfy one's life, one must satisfy the inner voice - that voice that is calling from within when silence surrounds and the world is quiet.

One of my former bosses - KT - taught me a very valuable lesson that until now I carry with me: "Leaders are not defined by their position or their titles; they are defined by the way they serve other people.  Christ-like leadership - service-based leadership.  Making other people shine by shining your own light."

Photo Credits:  From JML at this site.  Photo is governed by a Creative Commons License.

And yes.  That's what I want to do.

Serving leaders.  Leaders who lead in spite of who they are in the organizational chart ("Employee Number XXX156 from Cost Center XXX123").  Leaders who let their light shine and inspire others to also shine that others around them may also shine.  Leaders who deserve respect - from others who she/he also respects.  Leaders who inspire others - who in turn inspire her/him.

But never a slave.  Never.

I guess - in spite of my being a part of the capitalistic, dog-eat-dog world that characterizes the world that I live in - I still am an idealist.  And that I have never let go of the ideals that my family, my schools, my university and philosophy professors have taught me:  Be men and women for others - by living simply that others may simply live.