marginally subversive

how digital is shifting the world of media buying

The world of media buying has shifted dramatically due to changes in the consumer landscape as digital media became a significant part of the lives of consumers.

Through a friend on Facebook, I saw this video from PSFK.Com on the 'Secrets of a Killer Media Buyer: Future Success'.

There are three things that I got from the video:

1. Media buying is still about value-creation.  At the end of the day, it is about creating value for clients and generating the best deal.

2. However, the definition of value has changed: Value is no longer merely dollars-saved or the "best deal that you could negotiate and seal with all the bells and whistles for the clients for the lowest price possible".  Value is now about

(a) utility to clients - what's in it for them, they who are investing the money
(b) utility to consumers and audiences - what's in it for consumers

3. To achieve the best deal and realize the ultimate value for clients, you need data.  Because technology has paved the way for consumers to be entertained in terms of quantity and quality, we need data.

(a) The usual lines between 'traditional media' and 'non-traditional media' have been blurred by technology. 
"Video" no longer is just about TV - it now encompasses online videos (and the ad platforms supported by it), mobile videos, game consoles, handhelds, and even outdoor/in-store. 
"Radio" is no longer just what one hears on a radio set or on the car - but also in-mobile, on-the-web, on-demand, on-the-palm...  And press and magazines.

(b) To navigate through these choices, you will need data - how do consumers shift from one medium to another and why? 
[The "why" bit is almost-always missing - and is always a point of contention between me and most of the media planners-buyers that I work with.  But that's another story.]

(c) The kind of data that we need no longer will center on "how many people are exposed" - the usual impression-based metrics and currencies.  The kind of data that we need will need to encompass audience motivations, mindsets, and response. 

Here's the video:

 

 

Secrets Of A Killer Media Buyer: Future Success from Piers Fawkes on Vimeo.

And it just doesn't work on Sarah Palin videos - it works on this, too!

Risk in Media Planning

If you sit through a media planning meeting between a planner and a client, you'd probably hear terms such as GRPs, reach and frequency, CPRPs, effective frequency, and recency. If you sit in more sophisticated meetings, you'd probably hear of words such as "optimized media plan".

However, it is very rare for media planners to talk about risk management.

Which is quite surprising.

GRPs - ratings, TARPs, rating points - all cost money. And in these times of "very fickle-minded audiences", variability in ratings are more pronounced than ever before.

In spite of these phenomena, media planners are still preparing plans based on pre-set and predefined GRP goals and CPRP ceilings. They sometimes use sophisticated, individual-/respondent-level data to come up with "optimized" media plans.

However, such optimization techniques do not take into consideration "risks" - that is, the possibility of the media plan not delivering its goals.

I believe that the time has come for media planners to take into account the variability - and the risks - that come with their media plans.

I know that it is a tall order - but as audiences are being exposed to more and more options within a medium and within a timeblock, it is time for media planners to take into account risks and variability. It is only when we start thinking of risks and variability - and measure them and take them into account in a media plan - can we truly talk about ROI.

I have prepared a simple program that you could probably use as a starting point for thinking through a "risk management" approach in media plans. Of course, I will not claim to be an expert myself in risk-management; nor will I declare that the attached file is something that solves the problems of risk-management in media planning.

However, the attached could be a starting point - however simple it may be.

Here is a description of the file.

The challenge is simple: There are 10 programs that a media planner must consider buying. Each has a corresponding CPRP (cost per rating point). Here's the clincher, however: the average ratings of each of the programs are somewhere around 12.5. There is little difference across the 10 programs in terms of ratings - the media planner can only decide based on costs.

My proposition is simple: There is an opportunity to go beyond costs. In fact, there is a need to go beyond costs.

It is when things seem to be similar that we need to apply concepts of risk management into the media planning process.

To demonstrate, look at the attached file (after you've downloaded it and opened it in Excel 2000 or later). Enter any inputs that you'd like to test out in the blue cells. And then run SOLVER. It has been preset in the file.

The goal of SOLVER is to minimize what I call the "Risk Factor" whilst meeting the constraints that are defined by the media planner (e.g., the plan should be within budget; there is a minimum amount of GRPs that need to be achieved; there are minimum/maximum shares per program).

The Risk Factor is a simple measure - it is based on the concepts of variance, a common measure of risk and variability in the world of Finance.

This - I hope - will inspire others to take into account risk measures in the same way that they look at optimized GRPs, reach, and frequency. The time for risk management concepts to be incorporated in media planning, I strongly believe, has come.

And media planners should rise up to the occasion - specially now that clients are faced with challenges that they have never encountered before.

Ready, Set, Go for 2008: BusinessWeek's Innovation Predictions for 2008

BusinessWeek came up with their innovation predictions for 2008 here. 

Their first prediction is "Innovation Consolidation", which will see the big consultancy firms acquiring companies that are known to be in the "innovation business" (such as Ideo and Jump) to "to bolster [their] innovation practice".  Is it likely?  I think so.  Considering that McKinsey, BCG, and Bain are all moving into areas that are traditionally beyond their expertise (e.g., marketing communications and marketing ROI), it is very probable that they would also look at developing expertise in these areas.

Related to this is the trend that sees the transformation of B-schools into D-schools, as well as the real emergence of the "experience-focused" customer. 

"Identity" replaces "experience" as the next big concept in design and media thinking. People create their own identities interacting with products and services. The notion of a consumer experience is a more passive way of thinking. It's so 20th century. Identity gets the buzz in '08.

One prediction that I thought was very interesting was the idea of "unfriend me". 

Who you're friends with becomes more important than how many friends you have. Exclusivity and privacy replace open community in social media. People move to gated networks from Facebook and MySpace (NWS), fleeing the commercialization of their personal information and relationships.

... which personally is true for me.  I have started "faceslamming" (to use a term that I got from reading Wired's December issue) and "unfriending" people.  I think we're far too connected these days - and such is the power of technology now that I can be found by classmates from high school and from university.  I don't really want all my friends to know what I have been up to, really.  I think this is going to be our alternative to privacy - or perhaps a new definition of what privacy online is going to be: a selective announcement of who we are, what we have been doing, and what we are planning to do.

BusinessWeek also thinks that Kindle of Amazon is going to catch fire.  As an avid book-reader, I am not sure about this.  As far as I am concerned, I still like the idea of having books in my library - although the thought of having too many books does cross my mind.  (I am a nomad.)

For the most part, I would say it's going to be an exciting 2008 for all tech companies and marketing companies (which pretty much is every company).

One thing's for sure:  it's not business as usual next year.